South Africa’s Energy Minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has announced that the end of load shedding is within reach, thanks to Eskom’s remarkable turnaround in power generation. However, while load shedding may be on the decline, South Africa’s energy crisis is far from over. Load reduction has emerged as a new challenge, causing continued discomfort for households across the country.
In a media briefing held on Monday, August 12th, Minister Ramokgopa highlighted the significant improvements in Eskom’s operations, noting that the utility is now generating more electricity than the current demand requires. This achievement is underscored by Eskom’s recent performance, where it maintained an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 68% over the past week. This follows a solid EAF of 67.41% in July, a level of performance that was last seen in July 2021.
A key factor in this improved output is the reduction in unplanned outages. Since the beginning of Eskom’s financial year on April 1, 2024, unplanned outages have averaged between 9,800MW and 12,400MW, significantly lower than the anticipated 15,500MW forecasted in the winter outlook published on April 26, 2024. This improved stability has allowed Eskom to limit load shedding to Stage 2 during this period.
Minister Ramokgopa attributed Eskom’s impressive performance to a deliberate and coordinated effort across the board. South Africa has enjoyed 138 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply since March 26, 2024, including 104 days of stable electricity during the winter months. This marks the longest period of suspended load shedding since the 116-day reprieve between March and July 2020.
“Everything is coming together from the effort that has been put in across the board at Eskom. This is a shining example of what can be done to turn around from the lowest lows,” Ramokgopa stated. However, he urged caution, warning against premature declarations that load shedding is a thing of the past. While the numbers suggest that the end is near, he emphasized that it is still too early to celebrate.
Ramokgopa also noted that South Africa expects to add an additional 2,500MW to the grid this year, which will include the return of Medupi Unit 4, bringing 800MW back online; the activation of Kusile Unit 6, adding another 800MW; and the life extension of Koeberg Unit 2, contributing an additional 980MW. He reassured the public that a formal announcement would be made when load shedding is definitively over.
The New Face of South Africa’s Energy Crisis: Load Reduction
While the national power generation has improved, many South Africans continue to experience power outages, not from load shedding but from a different issue altogether: load reduction. Ramokgopa acknowledged this disparity, pointing out that while generation issues have been largely addressed, new challenges have arisen in the distribution of electricity, particularly at the municipal level.
Load reduction has become a painful reality in many parts of the country, driven by a combination of factors, including massive municipal debt and mismanagement. According to the minister, Eskom is owed approximately R78 billion by municipalities, which themselves are owed a staggering R349 billion by various customers, including households, businesses, and government entities.
The financial strain has led to the deterioration of critical infrastructure, exacerbating the problem. As a result, even diligent customers who regularly pay their bills are affected by load reduction, alongside poorer households that genuinely cannot afford to pay their monthly electricity costs. Ramokgopa emphasized the need to protect these vulnerable groups.
In response to the load reduction crisis, the government plans to collaborate with the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) to address the underlying issues from both an investment and pricing perspective. The government will be launching the second phase of an intervention program initially piloted in three municipalities—Beyers Naudé in the Eastern Cape and Kamiesberg and Nama-Khoi in the Northern Cape. This program aims to help municipalities pay off their debts with Eskom.
In this next phase, two municipalities from each province will be added to the pilot, with priority given to those with the highest debts owed to Eskom. However, Ramokgopa stressed that participation in the program would be voluntary, as the department lacks the authority to mandate municipal involvement.
In conclusion, while Eskom’s recent successes bring South Africa closer to ending load shedding, the country’s energy challenges are far from over. The transition from load shedding to load reduction marks a new chapter in South Africa’s ongoing struggle to stabilize its energy supply. The government’s efforts to address municipal debts and infrastructure issues will be crucial in ensuring a reliable power supply for all South Africans in the future.
