South African motorists are in for some relief at the pumps in September, with petrol prices expected to drop significantly. The upcoming adjustments could see drivers saving over R45 on average per tank, thanks to favorable economic conditions and international oil market dynamics.
According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), there is an anticipated over-recovery of between R0.73 and R0.88 per litre for petrol as August comes to a close. This over-recovery is set to translate into noticeable savings for consumers when petrol prices are adjusted in September.
Understanding Petrol Price Adjustments
In South Africa, petrol prices are regulated by the government and are adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month. The CEF, on behalf of the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), calculates daily prices for petrol, diesel, and illuminating paraffin. The monthly price changes are based on an average of the previous period’s data, applied to the upcoming month. This means that South Africa’s fuel prices typically reflect international trends with a one-month lag, depending on whether there was a recovery or deficit in the prior month.
The price of petrol is influenced by both international and domestic factors. Internationally, it’s determined by the cost for an importer to purchase petrol from an international refinery and ship it to South Africa. Domestically, various government-regulated taxes, levies, and margins are added to this base cost to determine the final retail price. While most of these government-imposed charges remain stable, it is the international component that primarily drives fluctuations in petrol prices.
Economic Factors Behind the September Decrease
Several key factors contributed to the expected decrease in petrol prices for September. In August, the South African rand strengthened slightly compared to its July average, largely driven by increased investor optimism surrounding the Government of National Unity (GNU). This influx of capital into South African assets helped bolster the currency, which had earlier weakened due to concerns over a potential recession in the United States. As these market fears subsided, the rand regained stability, nearing its stronger levels from July.
In addition to the rand’s improved performance, global oil prices remained relatively balanced throughout August, despite market volatility. According to Bloomberg, crude oil lost most of its gains for the year as China’s weaker economy overshadowed OPEC+ supply cuts, leading to lower oil prices globally. This reduction in global oil prices is a positive outcome for South African motorists, as it directly impacts the cost of importing fuel.
Investment strategist Izak Odendaal from Old Mutual Wealth noted that oil prices have not reacted sharply to global events, adding that while commodity prices are cyclical, they are expected to recover eventually. For now, the stabilized oil market is benefiting consumers at the pumps.
How Much Motorists Will Save Per Tank
The expected price drop in September means significant savings for South African motorists, but the exact amount will depend on the size of the petrol tank. BusinessTech calculated the average tank size based on the top-selling cars and pickup trucks in South Africa for 2024. Petrol tank sizes range from 37 litres (for models like the Suzuki Swift and Toyota Starlet) to 80 litres (for vehicles such as the Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger). The weighted average tank size across these vehicles is 60.4 litres.
Based on this average tank size, filling up with Petrol 93 will save motorists approximately R44.68, while filling up with Petrol 95 will result in savings of around R42.28. These estimates are derived from the CEF’s latest data, with the official petrol price announcement for September expected at the end of the month.
Savings Breakdown for Popular Vehicles
The table below outlines the estimated savings for owners of popular vehicles when filling up with Petrol 93 or Diesel 0.05%:
| Car | Tank Size (l) | Saving per tank (Petrol 93) |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota Hilux | 80* | R49.60 |
| Ford Ranger | 80* | R49.60 |
| Toyota Corolla Cross | 47 | R34.31 |
| VW Polo Vivo | 45 | R32.85 |
| Isuzu D-Max | 76* | R47.12 |
| Suzuki Swift | 37 | R27.01 |
| Toyota Starlet | 37 | R27.01 |
| Hyundai Grand i10 | 60 | R43.80 |
| Nissan NP200 | 50 | R36.50 |
| Toyota HiAce | 70 | R51.10 |
These figures illustrate the tangible impact of the expected petrol price reduction, offering much-needed financial relief to South African drivers amid ongoing economic pressures.
Looking Ahead
While the September petrol price decrease is undoubtedly good news for consumers, it also serves as a reminder of the volatility inherent in fuel pricing. As global oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical and economic developments, South African motorists can expect further fluctuations in the coming months.
Nonetheless, the immediate outlook is positive, with September poised to bring some of the most substantial savings at the pump in recent memory. For now, South African drivers can look forward to a more affordable refueling experience as they navigate the country’s roads.
