In a positive turn of events for South Africa, the closing months of 2023 witnessed a slight decrease in food prices, marking a continuation of the declining trend in food inflation. This trend is expected to extend into 2024, providing a glimmer of relief for households grappling with economic challenges.
Understanding the Data: PMBEJD’s Insights
The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity group (PMBEJD) presented crucial insights into South Africa’s food pricing dynamics. While the year-on-year food price inflation remains higher than headline inflation recorded by Stats SA, the latest data suggests a downward trend. The average cost of the Household Food Basket in December was recorded at R5,238.20, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of R76.43 (1.4%) from November 2023.
Decoding the Numbers: Inflation Patterns
Despite the year-on-year prices being 7.9% higher than in December 2022, the easing of the inflation rate is evident. In November, the food basket’s inflation rate stood at 9.9%, showcasing a notable decrease from previous months. This indicates a positive shift, with year-on-year prices showing a decline of up to two whole percentage points.
The Basket Breakdown: Items on the Move
The PMBEJD’s basket, encompassing 44 essential food items, acts as a barometer for the majority of households in South Africa. While reflecting a lower-income basket, it aligns with what a significant portion of the population considers when managing their monthly expenses.
Among the 44 tracked food items, five witnessed a year-on-year decrease in price, one remained stable, and the remaining 39 experienced an increase. Notably, 23 items saw double-digit growth, emphasizing a mix of increases and decreases.
Price Surges and Drops: Key Culprits
Eggs and potatoes stand out as the primary contributors to significant price hikes. Eggs soared by 55%, primarily due to the Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak, while potatoes experienced a staggering 50% increase. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) attributes the surge in potato prices to a 24% reduction in volumes caused by load shedding’s impact on irrigation capabilities.
Month-on-Month Trends: A Closer Look
While the overall basket appears to be easing, certain items exhibited notable month-on-month decreases. Potatoes, butternut, tomatoes, and onions saw reductions of 19%, 17%, 12%, and 10%, respectively, in December. Egg prices, while stabilizing, remain considerably higher than the previous year.
Positive Shifts: Items on the Decline
Amidst the fluctuations, several food items showed a decrease in both month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons. Onions lead the decline with a remarkable 27% reduction, followed by cooking oil (-13%), maize meal (-7%), beef (-2%), and beef liver (-1%).
Regional Variances: A National Perspective
The trend observed at the national level also resonates regionally. Various cities, including Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Springbok, Maritzburg, and Mtubatuba, showcased similar patterns of month-on-month decreases and year-on-year increases.
Conclusion: A Glimpse of Stability
While challenges persist, the decline in food prices, especially in key items, offers a glimmer of stability for South African households. The concerted efforts to address specific challenges, such as the impact of load shedding and disease outbreaks, are crucial in ensuring a sustainable and affordable food supply.
