The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new analysis projecting that artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to impact nearly 40% of all jobs. According to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in most scenarios, the adoption of AI is expected to exacerbate overall inequality. Georgieva urges policymakers to address this concerning trend and prevent technology from further inflaming social tensions.
The IMF report suggests that AI is likely to have a more pronounced effect on jobs in advanced economies, potentially influencing around 60% of them. Approximately half of these instances could lead to increased productivity for workers due to the integration of AI. However, in other cases, AI may replace tasks currently performed by humans, potentially reducing labor demand, impacting wages, and even resulting in job losses.
The IMF predicts that low-income countries will experience AI’s impact on only 26% of jobs. This aligns with a 2023 Goldman Sachs report estimating that AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, acknowledging the potential for new job creation and increased productivity.
Georgieva emphasizes that many developing nations lack the necessary infrastructure and skilled workforce to harness the benefits of AI, posing a risk of widening inequality on a global scale. The IMF also points out that higher-income and younger workers may experience disproportionate wage increases with the adoption of AI, while lower-income and older workers could face challenges keeping pace.
To address these concerns, Georgieva calls for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and implement retraining programs for vulnerable workers. This approach, she believes, will make the transition to AI more inclusive, protecting livelihoods and mitigating inequality.
This analysis from the IMF comes amid discussions on AI at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where global business and political leaders are gathered. AI is gaining increased attention and scrutiny, leading to regulatory efforts worldwide. In the European Union, officials recently reached a provisional deal on comprehensive laws to regulate AI, while China has introduced some of the world’s first national regulations on the technology. In the United States, President Biden signed an executive order requiring developers to share safety results related to AI with the government, and the UK hosted an AI Safety Summit where multiple countries signed a declaration on the safe development of AI.
