South African motorists may face higher petrol and diesel prices next month after Israel’s recent strikes on Iran jolted global oil markets and weakened the rand beyond R18 to the dollar. Previously, the Central Energy Fund pegged July fuel price cuts—10c/l for Petrol 93, 7c/l for Petrol 95, 13c/l for diesel, and 23c/l for illuminating paraffin—based on a $68/barrel oil price and a R17.80/USD exchange.
However, Brent crude has rallied to over $73/barrel amid fears of broader Middle East conflict, and Bloomberg reports it briefly topped $78 during the spike . With the rand trading past R18/USD due to risk-averse asset selloffs, the small fuel price cuts scheduled for July risk being wiped out—potentially returning to price hikes .
Investec economist Annabel Bishop highlights South Africa’s dependence on dollar-priced petroleum, noting prior rand strength earlier this year allowed for a R1/litre drop in fuel prices. But with recent geopolitical shocks, that relief may vanish this month.
As geopolitical tensions persist, any further escalation could pressure oil prices and weaken emerging-market currencies, intensifying the impact on South African households and the broader economy facebook.com. All eyes will now be on whether Brent recedes and the rand recovers ahead of July’s fuel pricing announcement.
